Inane inoculations: how far is too far?
Kristin Dragos
Issue date: 9/14/09 Section: Opinion
With the winter season so close, I feel it's necessary to address the issue of swine flu, or H1N1. H1N1 has been the cause of a lot of public concern lately, especially since schools across the country are back in session. Governments all over the world have put their countries on the highest level of alerts. People have been encouraged to wash their hands more often and use antiviral hand sanitizers. Even the French have been encouraged to give up their social greetings of kisses on the cheek. Are all of these precautions necessary?
As of Sept. 6, 2009, the World Health Organization reports show that there are over a quarter of a million reported cases of H1N1 and 3,200 deaths from the virus. It is important to note here that countries are not required to report cases. The WHO acknowledges this and says that the number understates the real number of cases. If we base our math on the reported cases and deaths, the virus has a 1.2 percent mortality rate. However, because many of the cases go unreported that percentage could be much higher.
Let's compare these numbers to the common flu. Each year there are three to five million cases and approximately 300,000 deaths. This would make a mortality rate of six to 10 percent. Take a look at those numbers side by side. Even with the vaccinations, the H1N1 virus doesn't even come close to the common flu's mortality rate.
The overrepresentation of the H1N1 virus in the media and the increased alerts seem to me like a great way to scare many people. Those citizens are worried about what is going to happen and are taking all the precautions they can. The real question is: if we prepared this much for every flu season and every strain of flu, would people get sick as often? I think that with all these preparations everyone has been making for the H1N1 virus, we will be seeing the numbers for the common flu drastically decrease. The bottom line is this: you have a much greater chance (10 times more) from dying of the common flu, which many people get every year, than from the swine flu.
As of Sept. 6, 2009, the World Health Organization reports show that there are over a quarter of a million reported cases of H1N1 and 3,200 deaths from the virus. It is important to note here that countries are not required to report cases. The WHO acknowledges this and says that the number understates the real number of cases. If we base our math on the reported cases and deaths, the virus has a 1.2 percent mortality rate. However, because many of the cases go unreported that percentage could be much higher.
Let's compare these numbers to the common flu. Each year there are three to five million cases and approximately 300,000 deaths. This would make a mortality rate of six to 10 percent. Take a look at those numbers side by side. Even with the vaccinations, the H1N1 virus doesn't even come close to the common flu's mortality rate.
The overrepresentation of the H1N1 virus in the media and the increased alerts seem to me like a great way to scare many people. Those citizens are worried about what is going to happen and are taking all the precautions they can. The real question is: if we prepared this much for every flu season and every strain of flu, would people get sick as often? I think that with all these preparations everyone has been making for the H1N1 virus, we will be seeing the numbers for the common flu drastically decrease. The bottom line is this: you have a much greater chance (10 times more) from dying of the common flu, which many people get every year, than from the swine flu.
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Shawn
posted 9/14/09 @ 2:19 PM CST
"The bottom line is this: you have a much greater chance (10 times more) from dying of the common flu, which many people get every year, than from the swine flu. (Continued…)
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